Contrary to popular belief, NFL betting markets are the sharpest in the entire world. There are many bets placed on the NFL because online betting sites have to work hard to keep their lines efficient and up to date. Otherwise, they bear the risk of incurring significant losses. For those familiar with the sport and understand the expected value markets, betting on the NFL will not only be possible but profitable also.
If bettors apply a smart football strategy around it, then there are more chances of bettors making huge money out of betting on the NFL. No doubt, NFL football is the most famous American sport, and it is known to everyone that it is the most widely played sport on which people bet. Its fans are always so desperate that they never even think of missing a second of action on it. Here are some tips to bet on the NFL and bring home the money by betting on NFL best bets.
Betting tips on NFL
Check reverse line movement
You must be familiar with the phrase sharps vs squares if you are an avid sports bettor. Those who bet professionally are the sharps, whereas recreational bettors are termed as squares. It is common for the oddsmakers to point out betting action pits against squares in many of the NFL games. This type of action will result in reverse line movement. By reverse line movement, we mean that oddsmakers will shift the line where there will be less money as they view the fewer bets on that side.
Since the sharps are typically more knowledgeable, oddsmakers always respect the sharp money instead of the square money. Many online betting sites will track the money on the NFL and the percentage of bets. Therefore, bettors should look out for such games that see the lines against the majority of bets. Always place the bet on the lesser side if you found such. This way, it would mean that you agree with the sharps as they are more profitable than squares in the long run.
Bag the home-field advantage
The NFL league is most impacted by the home-field advantage of all professional sports, with most NFL stadiums seating around 70,000+ fans. There are specific teams who you think are unbeatable, especially when they play at home. Over the last six seasons, the New England Patriots are at 48-9 SU. From 2014-2018, they cover 66.6% of their home games and have a dominant against the spread record. One of the best home-field examples is enjoyed by the team Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink field.
The past trends of the game suggest that all home teams cover the spread majority of the time. Home field advantage is automatically built up by the oddsmakers when making their lines. But if one gets deep into it, one finds more of such advantages in betting. For instance, an east coast team has an advantage while playing against the west coast team. Every bettor should consider all these advantages when placing the bet.
Past trends
By looking at the prior week’s performance of the teams, NFL teams put themselves into trouble by putting too much emphasis on the team’s performances then. They think it will be beneficial to carry them in the next week. But they forget that oddsmakers are the sharpest people out there. They are very well aware of the public’s reaction when they see that the team performs well and will also use it against the public by setting the lines against it. As a result, whatever value one must expect will be erased by the oddsmakers in the middle of the streak. Besides this, the one who trains the players is also smart. The coaches come up with a game plan to neutralize their opponent’s best weapons and have a week to look into things. One significant reason for its popularity is its unpredictability which often takes place when betting.
Public teams
Almost every sport has iconic franchises and public teams with solid fan bases around the country. The NFL’s biggest public teams are Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. For the sum of money bet on these public teams every week, the recreational bettors are solely responsible for this. Many bettors bet with their hearts over their heads. Owing to the pride, they cannot accept that their team is not on the right track in front of their fans.
Still, public teams will come up with the win of their share throughout the NFL season. These teams have a large percentage of money bet on them because of their popularity.
Shopping the lines
One piece of advice that should be headed for every sport is to shop for the best lines at different sportsbooks. Whatever differences there are in the lines will likely impact football more than any other sport. Many games end with the team winning by three or seven points with the scoring structure of football. This also leads the oddsmakers to set many lines, with one team being favored over the other. The difference of extra half-point difference when shopping the lines is known as the hook. Not only this, but it also dramatically alters the perception of the line. It will also give you an excellent advantage over the oddsmakers when appropriately used.
Bet on small NFL markets
One can make plenty of money while betting on the NFL sides, totals, and money line bets, but one thing that most of the bettors out there tend to forget is about the small markets. Due to the large number of bets coming in, bigger markets will grab more attention from the management, which will mean sharper lines. But one of the best strategies that football bettors should use is betting on smaller markets.
Team props
Oddsmakers tend to offer a large assortment of bets different from the major markets due to the NFL’s extreme popularity. But the favorite markets to attack over here are team props and players. Unfortunately, little research goes behind these markets, and these are more geared towards the recreational bettors who are always up for their favorite players.
Along with the correct NFL betting strategy, these are extremely profitable for the average sports bettors.
Halftime betting lines
It is also one type of betting market that NFL bettors should consider while betting. One way to pursue this is through the sportsbooks and see the lines there. The winning key will be line shopping. Then, you need to place a bet on them if you can spot the inefficiencies. Apart from this, another way to bet on these is by looking at them and getting the knack of each team.
Sometimes the team gets outplayed during a half but ends up leading due to some bad luck. When it comes to betting halftime lines, underdogs also have some value, mainly when they perform well in the first half. The betting action may add value to the underdogs.
NFL proposition bets
Some bettors tend to place the maximum amount of bets on these, while others may place less on this. Oddsmakers do not oversee these, and sometimes they may occasionally pull props. However, bettors can easily find edges on this with little research. These bets are best for those who are attempting to build the bankroll and picking off soft lines.
Conclusion
Keep all these points in mind while betting on the NFL, and make sure to look at NFL best bets also as this will spice up the action and increase the likelihood of you winning the money.